NBA’s Forgotten Ones: The Black Hole Mediocracies
I originally posted this article on Reddit last year and got absolutely thrashed. This summer, the topic of mediocrity has been a talking point for NBA analysts and fans. Due to the popularity of the topic, I decided to revisit this post and make a few changes (including removing the Suns from “The Future of the NBA” list) to make it 2018 relevant, however a majority of the main points of discussion are the same from last year. So, what is the cost of being mediocre?
It’s Summer 2018 in the NBA. The Warriors are going to win another 3 rings, Kawhi is the most hated player in the league, and JBA is taking over as the best basketball league in the world (maybe). We watch in glamor as the many (All) stars align to create magnificent Big Dippers. We cast our microscopes in desperation to catch a shooting (Rising) star. To cease all the metaphors, the Superteams of this league are dominating the industry, and on the polar spectrum, #tanknation is alive and well. We love to talk about these teams, but what about everyone else in between? The forgotten ones, the extras, the kid in school who consistently wasn’t a nerd but was never popular either (me). Just so we are clear, when I speak of these teams, I mean the overwhelming majority of teams in this league that will never be a championship contender for at least the next three years nor will likely draft the next KD or LeBron. Let’s call them Black Hole Mediocracies. So I pose the question: what is the cost of mediocracy?
Let’s first define which teams fit in which category:
Realistic Chances of winning a ring in the next three years:
Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Celtics, 76ers
Could have a shot if things go very right, but could likely end up being mediocre:
Jazz, Bucks, Spurs (I can’t rule out any team with Pop coaching)
Mediocracy Black Hole:
Overachieving Mediocracies: Wizards, Raptors, Blazers, Pelicans, Thunder
Mediocracies: Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Nuggets, Pistons, Pacers, Clippers, Heat, Magic, Knicks, Timberwolves
Tank Nation:
Mavs, Hawks, Kings, Suns, Grizzlies
Before going forward, I do understand how turbulent the league can be. A team could suddenly draft a franchise player who could change them from mediocracy to contender, and vice versa, where a contending team could lose their best player to injury or FA and become mediocre. However for consistency, I’m basing these categories on how teams have played out the past few years and how they are set up currently for years to come.
Black Hole Mediocracies. These are teams that, more than likely, aren’t going past the conference semi’s in the next three years. Two factors feed into this: low draft picks and lack of ability to draw in stars. Several of these teams have good players — even All-Stars — who fight tooth and nail every year to compete, while other teams slowly begin to join #tanknation halfway through the season. Some make the playoffs as 3 or 4 seed (or even a 1 seed like the 17/18 Raptors), some barely sneak in, and the rest end up in the middle of final NBA standings just outside the playoffs in the 9–14 seed range. Convincing a big-time free agent to join Black Hole Mediocracies is tough. These teams are generally, but not always, in smaller markets and don’t have enough potential to sway a player of high caliber to their side. Though he isn’t the best example of a big-time free agent, Melo could have gotten paid more than a veteran minimum on several teams but he opted to go to a contender (H-Town) because he wants to win — the fulfillment just isn’t there for him if he went to a Hornets or Pelicans at this point in his career. Other major free agents likely have the same mentality. These Black Hole Mediocracies ultimately end up in the middle of the draft where their chances on actually hitting on a franchise player is very unlikely.
All 17 loyal Hawks fans in Atlanta from 2009–2017 understands this far to well. You know, floating around the mid/bottom of playoff seeding year-by-year only to be dismantled by a greater foe (LeBron) in either the 1st round or conference semis. The 2009–2017 Atlanta Hawks are trajectories that the Wizards, Raptors (yes, with Kawhi) and Blazers are playing out. We could call these teams Over-Acheiving Mediocracies, but what’s the difference: end of day, they aren’t contenders in the near future. As of the 2017 summer, the Hawks have finally gave up and began their journey of tanking. Over-Achieving Mediocracies are the peak of success Black Hole Mediocracies can achieve, which begs the question again: what is the cost of mediocracy?
One that hits home is my good ol’ Charlotte Bobnets. You guys remember us, right? We’re that team over in NC that has made the playoffs only three times in the past 14 years, made a nice cozy home for a $17mil/yr Bismack Biyombo contract thanks to years of bad trades, and gave Nic Batum a max contract. We have this one guy who always wears a hoop earring running our team as well. Until the summer of 2017 when they decided to join #tanknation, I compared ourselves to being a poor mans aforementioned Atlanta Hawks. We fight to compete every year and are always knocking on the door of the playoffs. Not the championship, not a top-5 pick in the NBA draft, not even a 3–4 seed, but the playoffs. Where has that strategy left us during the past five years? 14th, 7th, 11th, 6th, 11th, and 10th seed respectively since 2012–2013. Of our two playoffs births during this half decade, we were ousted in the first round twice. Of our draft picks throughout those years, we have received, either in the form of a pick or trade, Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, Nic Batum, Marco Belinelli (gone), Malik Monk, and Miles Bridges. The draft is so important for Black Hole Mediocracies, not only for acquiring young talent, but to attract free agents in the future. Of course, the best case scenario of this is the Warriors who drafted well enough to lure KD into their empire. Sure these Hornets listed are all somewhat productive players in this league, but is this the five year strategy MJ & Co. planned when we had the worst winning percentage in NBA history in 2012?
Maybe it is. Maybe teams have accepted that they aren’t going to be a contender anytime soon and are content with being a 45–50 win team. Maybe management doesn’t think it’s worth tanking, where revenue would be as dry as a Kawhi Leonard interview. Maybe fans of Black Hole Mediocracies are okay with being able to just compete with contenders during the regular season, though they know winning multiple seven game series is virtually impossible. At least you aren’t the laughing stock of the league where your mascot makes the highlight reel more times that the actual team does, right? So this just begs the question: what is the cost of mediocracy?!
In short, the cost of mediocracy is pain, disappointment, and debt. Bare with me here, but we can parallel the Black Hole Mediocracies with drug addicts. A fix for a drug addict is the equivalent of a mid-tier/good player for a team. These flurry of fixes give you’re wave of highs (wins) and lows (losses), but you continue to take (spend) more as you come down to get back on your high. The high’s can be great, almost elating at times, but we all know this fix is temporary. Eventually, you end up worse than you where started and dead broke because you’ve spent your life savings (bad contracts) on these temporary fixes. You then go through another few years of recovering (getting rid of bad contracts) until you are back at square one.
It doesn’t take a genius to say this at this point, but the Sixers got it right. They realized early on that they had players who were talented but ultimately were not going to make them contenders. Sam Hinke let go of the likes of Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes and Nick Young instead of paying them top dollar as many of this Black Hole Mediocracies would. These were all good players at some point, but the Sixers realized that they didn’t want to be the next 2009–2017 Atlanta Hawks of this league. The cost of being mediocre wasn’t worth it to them. They got rid of these players and stacked up on draft picks instead. They didn’t hit on every draft pick, but the sheer volume of high picks they acquired ultimately gave them two franchise players. It’s not premature to say that they will be legit contenders in next several years (pending injury) due to their realization that being mediocre just isn’t worth it.
Coming from first hand experience, mediocracy is simply not worth it. Ask those 8 die-hard Atlanta Hawks fans if it was worth it.
pours one out for the Hawks
